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Spartak Moskva U20 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Spartak Moskva U20
Spartak Moskva U20
PST
11:00
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
4/25/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Spartak Moskva U2038%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv Moskva U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moskva U20
1.60
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Spartak Moskva U20
2.35
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
2.00

allows per match

Spartak Moskva U20
1.25
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.86

finishing

Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva U20 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva U20 or draw
61%
Spartak Moskva U20 or Lokomotiv Moskva U20
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U20
62%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+
19%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals
80%
Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals
47%
Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
80%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
48%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 2.35 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 2.00 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Moskva U20 scores more
38%
level
23%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
39%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Moskva U20 face Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (Youth Championship)

Youth Championship returns with Spartak Moskva U20 hosting Lokomotiv Moskva U20. Match starts April 25, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.