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Lokomotiv Moskva U20 vs Spartak Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
FT
0 – 1
Spartak Moskva U20
Spartak Moskva U20
10/26/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 14Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U2047%
×Draw27%
Spartak Moskva U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.44
Spartak Moskva U20
0.99

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.63
Spartak Moskva U20
1.45

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.53
Spartak Moskva U20
1.25

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par
Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 ↓

Spartak Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or draw
74%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or Spartak Moskva U20
73%
Draw or Spartak Moskva U20
53%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
23%
Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
18%
Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals
63%
Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals
26%
Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
65%
Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Spartak Moskva U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 1.63 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 1.45 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
47%
level
27%
Spartak Moskva U20 scores more
26%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Lokomotiv Moskva U20 0–1 Spartak Moskva U20

Spartak Moskva U20 beat Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.