Spartak Moskva U20 2–0 Chertanovo U20

Spartak Moskva U20

FT

2 – 0

Chertanovo U20

10/16/2020

Youth Championship · Round 6Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Spartak Moskva U2056%

×Draw20%

Chertanovo U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchChertanovo U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.39

Spartak Moskva U20

2.20

Chertanovo U20

1.39

Spartak Moskva U20 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 73 away

2.35

creates per match

1.53

1.25

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Spartak Moskva U20

2.35

Chertanovo U20

1.53

allows per match

Spartak Moskva U20

1.25

Chertanovo U20

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par

Chertanovo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva U20 ↓

Chertanovo U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva U20 or draw

76%

Spartak Moskva U20 or Chertanovo U20

80%

Draw or Chertanovo U20

44%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+

34%

Chertanovo U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals

89%

Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals

64%

Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals

37%

Chertanovo U20 1+ goals

75%

Chertanovo U20 2+ goals

40%

Chertanovo U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Chertanovo U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Chertanovo U20 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.05 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 2.35 + Chertanovo U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.20

Chertanovo U20 attack 1.53 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Moskva U20 scores more

56%

level

20%

Chertanovo U20 scores more

24%

Spartak Moskva U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff