Spartak Moskva U20 1–0 Arsenal Tula U20

Spartak Moskva U20

FT

1 – 0

Arsenal Tula U20

12/13/2020

Youth Championship · Round 14Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Spartak Moskva U2051%

×Draw22%

Arsenal Tula U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchArsenal Tula U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.37

Spartak Moskva U20

1.97

Arsenal Tula U20

1.37

Spartak Moskva U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

2.35

creates per match

1.49

1.25

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Spartak Moskva U20

2.35

Arsenal Tula U20

1.49

allows per match

Spartak Moskva U20

1.25

Arsenal Tula U20

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva U20 ↓

Arsenal Tula U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva U20 or draw

73%

Spartak Moskva U20 or Arsenal Tula U20

78%

Draw or Arsenal Tula U20

49%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+

29%

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals

86%

Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals

58%

Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals

31%

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals

75%

Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals

40%

Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Arsenal Tula U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 2.35 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.97

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 1.49 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Spartak Moskva U20 scores more

51%

level

22%

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more

27%

Spartak Moskva U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff