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Spartak Moskva U19 vs Orenburg U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Spartak Moskva U19
Spartak Moskva U19
FT
8 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
8/25/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 8Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spartak Moskva U1966%
×Draw19%
Orenburg U1915%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moskva U19
2.31
Orenburg U19
1.01

Spartak Moskva U19 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 38 away

creates per match

Spartak Moskva U19
1.96
Orenburg U19
0.79

allows per match

Spartak Moskva U19
1.23
Orenburg U19
2.66

finishing

Spartak Moskva U19+0.00on par
Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva U19 or draw
85%
Spartak Moskva U19 or Orenburg U19
81%
Draw or Orenburg U19
34%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva U19 wins by 2+
43%
Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva U19 1+ goals
90%
Spartak Moskva U19 2+ goals
67%
Spartak Moskva U19 3+ goals
40%
Orenburg U19 1+ goals
64%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
27%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.23 · 79 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva U19 attack 1.96 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.31

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Spartak Moskva U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Spartak Moskva U19 scores more
66%
level
19%
Orenburg U19 scores more
15%

Spartak Moskva U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Spartak Moskva U19 8–0 Orenburg U19

Spartak Moskva U19 beat Orenburg U19 8-0 in Youth Championship on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.