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Spartak Moskva U19 vs Fakel U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Spartak Moskva U19
Spartak Moskva U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fakel U19
Fakel U19
6/27/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 12Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Spartak Moskva U1953%
×Draw23%
Fakel U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moskva U19
1.85
Fakel U19
1.18

Spartak Moskva U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 60 away

creates per match

Spartak Moskva U19
1.96
Fakel U19
1.12

allows per match

Spartak Moskva U19
1.23
Fakel U19
1.75

finishing

Spartak Moskva U19+0.00on par
Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva U19 ↓

Fakel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva U19 or draw
76%
Spartak Moskva U19 or Fakel U19
77%
Draw or Fakel U19
47%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva U19 wins by 2+
30%
Fakel U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva U19 1+ goals
84%
Spartak Moskva U19 2+ goals
55%
Spartak Moskva U19 3+ goals
28%
Fakel U19 1+ goals
69%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
33%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.23 · 79 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva U19 attack 1.96 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.85

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + Spartak Moskva U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spartak Moskva U19 scores more
53%
level
23%
Fakel U19 scores more
24%

Spartak Moskva U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Spartak Moskva U19 1–0 Fakel U19

Spartak Moskva U19 beat Fakel U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on June 27, 2025.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.