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Spartak Moscow vs Tambov — Premier League 2018

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Tambov
Tambov
7/4/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Otkrytiye Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Moscow59%
×Draw22%
Tambov18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.86
Tambov
0.92

Spartak Moscow creates 102% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
1.72
Tambov
0.80

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.04
Tambov
2.00

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
82%
Spartak Moscow or Tambov
78%
Draw or Tambov
41%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
35%
Tambov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
84%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
55%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
28%
Tambov 1+ goals
60%
Tambov 2+ goals
23%
Tambov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
76%
Tambov (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Tambov away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Tambov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tambov attack 0.80 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
59%
level
22%
Tambov scores more
18%

Spartak Moscow at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Spartak Moscow 2–3 Tambov

Tambov beat Spartak Moscow 3-2 in Premier League on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Otkrytiye Arena in Moskva.