Spartak Moscow 3–2 Orenburg: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Orenburg

7/23/2023

Premier League · Round 1Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Spartak Moscow55%

×Draw23%

Orenburg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.04

Spartak Moscow

1.80

Orenburg

1.04

Spartak Moscow creates 73% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 91 away

1.72

creates per match

1.05

1.04

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.72

Orenburg

1.05

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.04

Orenburg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

78%

Spartak Moscow or Orenburg

77%

Draw or Orenburg

45%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

31%

Orenburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

83%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

54%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

27%

Orenburg 1+ goals

65%

Orenburg 2+ goals

28%

Orenburg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

72%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.80

Orenburg attack 1.05 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

55%

level

23%

Orenburg scores more

22%

Spartak Moscow at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff