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FC Orenburg vs Spartak Moscow — Premier League 2018

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
7/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FC Orenburg38%
×Draw26%
Spartak Moscow36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.32
Spartak Moscow
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.39
Spartak Moscow
1.35

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.20
Spartak Moscow
1.26

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
64%
FC Orenburg or Spartak Moscow
74%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
62%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
17%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
73%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
38%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
36%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
52%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Spartak Moscow attack 1.35 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
38%
level
26%
Spartak Moscow scores more
36%

FC Orenburg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Orenburg vs Spartak Moscow

FC Orenburg beat Spartak Moscow 2-0 in Premier League on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.