Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg — Cup 2019

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
Preview
15:00
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
8/4/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 1Lukoil Arena
Big match
65%
Spartak Moscow
model favours
65%20%16%

Spartak Moscow score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Moscow65%
×Draw20%
FC Orenburg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
2.18
FC Orenburg
0.97

Spartak Moscow creates 125% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
2.42
FC Orenburg
0.94

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.00
FC Orenburg
1.94

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

FC Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
84%
Spartak Moscow or FC Orenburg
80%
Draw or FC Orenburg
35%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
41%
FC Orenburg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
89%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
64%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
37%
FC Orenburg 1+ goals
62%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
25%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
80%
FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

FC Orenburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 2.42 + FC Orenburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.18

FC Orenburg attack 0.94 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
65%
level
20%
FC Orenburg scores more
16%

Spartak Moscow at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Spartak Moscow’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moscow
LDWWD
Orenburg
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Moscow face FC Orenburg (Cup)

Cup returns with Spartak Moscow hosting FC Orenburg. Match starts August 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartak Moscow host FC Orenburg at Lukoil Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.