Spartak Moscow 1–2 Dinamo Makhachkala

Spartak Moscow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dinamo Makhachkala

4/11/2025

Premier League · Round 24Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Spartak Moscow56%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Makhachkala19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.78

Spartak Moscow

1.57

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.78

Spartak Moscow creates 101% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 31 away

1.72

creates per match

0.52

1.04

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.72

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.52

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.04

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

81%

Spartak Moscow or Dinamo Makhachkala

75%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

44%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

30%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

79%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

46%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

21%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

54%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

18%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

75%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

56%

level

25%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

19%

Spartak Moscow at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff