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Spartak Moscow vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
7/31/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Moscow45%
×Draw27%
Baltika28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.42
Baltika
1.07

Spartak Moscow creates 33% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
1.72
Baltika
1.10

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.04
Baltika
1.13

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
72%
Spartak Moscow or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
55%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
22%
Baltika wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
76%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
41%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
17%
Baltika 1+ goals
66%
Baltika 2+ goals
29%
Baltika 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
61%
Baltika (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Baltika attack 1.10 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
45%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
28%

Spartak Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Spartak Moscow 2–1 Baltika

Spartak Moscow beat Baltika 2-1 in Premier League on July 31, 2023.

The match was played at Lukoil Arena in Moskva.