Spartak Moscow 2 0–0 Zenit 2: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit 2

10/20/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spartak Moscow 247%

×Draw25%

Zenit 228%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchZenit 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.14

Spartak Moscow 2

1.57

Zenit 2

1.14

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 80 away

1.79

creates per match

1.49

0.79

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.79

Zenit 2

1.49

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

0.79

Zenit 2

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Zenit 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

72%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Zenit 2

75%

Draw or Zenit 2

53%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

24%

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

79%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

46%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

21%

Zenit 2 1+ goals

68%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

32%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

63%

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 38 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.35 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.79 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.57

Zenit 2 attack 1.49 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

47%

level

25%

Zenit 2 scores more

28%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Nikiforov← I. Galanin

56'

V. Karpenko← A. Gurylev

56'

A. Filev← A. Bykovskiy

59'

D. Plotnikov← Y. Petin

67'

R. Kolmakov← E. Pshennikov

85'

D. Rubanov← A. Maksimchuk

85'

D. Mushkarin← K. Voinkov

90+6'

K. Dontsov← N. Vershinin

Spartak

Zenit

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Kombarov

56'▲V. Karpenko←▼A. Gurylev

56'▲A. Filev←▼A. Bykovskiy

59'▲D. Plotnikov←▼Y. Petin

Spartak Moscow 2 substitutes

KarpenkoFilevPlotnikov

Manager: A. Pocheptsov

46'▲S. Nikiforov←▼I. Galanin

67'▲R. Kolmakov←▼E. Pshennikov

85'▲D. Rubanov←▼A. Maksimchuk

85'▲D. Mushkarin←▼K. Voinkov

90+6'▲K. Dontsov←▼N. Vershinin

Zenit 2 substitutes

NikiforovKolmakovRubanovMushkarinDontsov