Spartak Moscow 2 2–0 Volgar Astrakhan

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Volgar Astrakhan

4/17/2021

First League · Round 37Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Spartak Moscow 239%

×Draw27%

Volgar Astrakhan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.21

Spartak Moscow 2

1.31

Volgar Astrakhan

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 76 away

1.38

creates per match

0.93

1.49

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.38

Volgar Astrakhan

0.93

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.49

Volgar Astrakhan

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

66%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Volgar Astrakhan

73%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

61%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

18%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

73%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

38%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

14%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

70%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

34%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

53%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.38 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

39%

level

27%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

34%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff