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Spartak Moscow 2 vs TOM Tomsk — First League 2018

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
9/29/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Spartak Moscow 240%
×Draw27%
TOM Tomsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.34
TOM Tomsk
1.20

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 74 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.36
TOM Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.49
TOM Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

TOM Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
67%
Spartak Moscow 2 or TOM Tomsk
73%
Draw or TOM Tomsk
60%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
18%
TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
15%
TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
70%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
34%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
55%
TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.36 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
40%
level
27%
TOM Tomsk scores more
33%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs TOM Tomsk

Spartak Moscow 2 beat TOM Tomsk 3-1 in First League on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.