Spartak Moscow 2 2–2 Luki-Energiya: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Luki-Energiya

E. Gulyaev 85'

N. Posmashnyi 55'

A. Korenblyum 44'

V. Lunev 18'

5/18/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spartak Moscow 259%

×Draw23%

Luki-Energiya17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchLuki-Energiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.80

Spartak Moscow 2

1.73

Luki-Energiya

0.80

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 87 away

1.79

creates per match

0.82

0.79

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.79

Luki-Energiya

0.82

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

0.79

Luki-Energiya

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Luki-Energiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

83%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Luki-Energiya

77%

Draw or Luki-Energiya

41%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

34%

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

82%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

52%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

25%

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals

55%

Luki-Energiya 2+ goals

19%

Luki-Energiya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

78%

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 38 matches

Luki-Energiya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.67 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.79 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Luki-Energiya attack 0.82 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

59%

level

23%

Luki-Energiya scores more

17%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

22'

34'

40'

44'

46'

E. Gulyaev← V. Solopov

46'

I. Ivanov← R. Voytsekhovskiy

48'

I. Ivanov

53'

M. Mayboroda← A. Korenblyum

55'

N. Posmashnyi

61'

E. Gulyaev

61'

D. Strebtsov

76'

M. Kriushichev← D. Stolyarov

78'

M. Sergeev← A. Gavrilenko

85'

E. Gulyaev

90+1'

I. Medvedev← I. Ivanov

90+1'

G. Nikitin←

Spartak

Luki-Energiya

97

Tsutsulae

44

Gorbachev

78

Edzhibia

4

⚽

Lunev

19

▼

Ivanov

77

▼

Gavrilenk

8

Polyakov

9

Lukin

7

⚽

▼

24

10

58

85

66

41

59

64

▼

Stolyarov

43

▼

Voytsekho

55

⚽

Posmashny

80

Popolitov

87

▼

Filev

89

▼

Solopov

22'▲A. Gurylev←▼A. Filev

46'▲E. Gulyaev←▼V. Solopov

46'▲I. Ivanov←▼R. Voytsekhovskiy

76'▲M. Kriushichev←▼D. Stolyarov

Spartak Moscow 2 substitutes

86Tikhomirov50Gapeev71Dobroditskiy61Rozhkov38Gulyaev69Gurylev74Dyatlov67Ivanov92Kobylin33Parfenov46Kriushichev

Manager: S. Osadchuk

53'▲M. Mayboroda←▼A. Korenblyum

78'▲M. Sergeev←▼A. Gavrilenko

90+1'▲I. Medvedev←▼I. Ivanov

90+1'▲G. Nikitin←▼—

Luki-Energiya substitutes

1Eliseev17Agarev22Glebov14Medvedev11Sergeev27Mayboroda73Nikitin

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Luki-Energiya

Spartak Moscow 2 and Luki-Energiya drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on May 18, 2025.

Goals: V. Lunev (18'), A. Korenblyum (44'), N. Posmashnyi (55'), E. Gulyaev (85').

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moscow.

Spartak Moscow 2 vs Luki-Energiya — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Luki-Energiya