Spartak Moscow 2 2–2 Luch-Energiya: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Luch-Energiya

10/24/2018

First League · Round 18Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak (Moskva)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spartak Moscow 239%

×Draw27%

Luch-Energiya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchLuch-Energiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.17

Spartak Moscow 2

1.29

Luch-Energiya

1.17

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 40 away

1.36

creates per match

0.85

1.49

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.36

Luch-Energiya

0.85

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.49

Luch-Energiya

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Luch-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Luch-Energiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

66%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Luch-Energiya

73%

Draw or Luch-Energiya

61%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

18%

Luch-Energiya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

72%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

37%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

14%

Luch-Energiya 1+ goals

69%

Luch-Energiya 2+ goals

33%

Luch-Energiya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

54%

Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Luch-Energiya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.36 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Luch-Energiya attack 0.85 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

39%

level

27%

Luch-Energiya scores more

34%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff