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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
4/6/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Spartak Moscow 237%
×Draw26%
Fakel Voronezh37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.34
Fakel Voronezh
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 89 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.38
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.49
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
63%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Fakel Voronezh
74%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
63%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
17%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
15%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
74%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
39%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
50%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.38 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
37%
level
26%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
37%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Fakel Voronezh

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Fakel Voronezh 2-0 in First League on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.