Spartak Moscow 2 7–2 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

7 – 2

HT: 5 – 1

Fakel Voronezh

M. Glushenkov 80'

S. Bakaev 64', 36', 6'

S. Nimely 26', 14', 5'

I. Mazurov 77'

R. Koryan 45' (pen)

10/23/2019

First League · Round 19Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Spartak Moscow 238%

×Draw26%

Fakel Voronezh36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.34

Spartak Moscow 2

1.38

Fakel Voronezh

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 87 away

1.41

creates per match

1.22

1.46

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.41

Fakel Voronezh

1.22

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.46

Fakel Voronezh

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

64%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Fakel Voronezh

74%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

62%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

18%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

40%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

16%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

74%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

39%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

51%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 70 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.41 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.22 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

38%

level

26%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

36%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

6'

14'

26'

27'

29'

A. Soloviev

36'

S. Bakaev

45'

R. KoryanPenalty

46'

V. Vasiljev← N. Bakalyuk

46'

M. Sazonov← L. Mironov

46'

A. Ryabokobylenko← R. Koryan

46'

A. Verulidze← I. Khleborodov

55'

Idrisa Sambú← S. Nimely

62'

I. Mazurov← O. Dmitriev

64'

S. Bakaev

65'

T. Tiub← S. Bakaev

69'

P. Volodkin← D. Markitesov

77'

I. Mazurov

80'

M. Glushenkov

83'

D. Neplyuev← A. Solovjov

90'

A. Ryabokobylenko

Spartak

Fakel

79

Ermakov

96

Likhachev

21

Krasilnic

4

▼

41

55

10

27

34

▼

Dmitriev

19

⚽

▼

Koryan

13

▼

Khleborod

27

Akmurzin

21

Badu

35

▼

39

36

63

17

⚽3

▼

Bakaev

15

⚽

Glushenko

80

▼

Bakalyuk

74

▼

Markiteso

66

⚽3

▼

Nimely

Manager: V. Bulatov

46'▲V. Vasiljev←▼N. Bakalyuk

46'▲M. Sazonov←▼L. Mironov

55'▲Idrisa Sambú←▼S. Nimely

65'▲T. Tiub←▼S. Bakaev

69'▲P. Volodkin←▼D. Markitesov

Spartak Moscow 2 substitutes

42Vasiljev67Sazonov45Sambú28Tiub43Volodkin31Shitov48Yarusov96Aktisov84Oganesyan

Manager: V. Beschastnykh

46'▲A. Ryabokobylenko←▼R. Koryan

46'▲A. Verulidze←▼I. Khleborodov

62'▲I. Mazurov←▼O. Dmitriev

83'▲D. Neplyuev←▼A. Solovjov

Fakel Voronezh substitutes

8Ryabokobylenko33Verulidze11Mazurov2Neplyuev7Vorobjov9Korobkin17Pukhov22Buchnev23V.Turukin25Smirnov92Bryzgalov

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Fakel Voronezh

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Fakel Voronezh 7-2 in First League on October 23, 2019.

Goals: S. Nimely (5', 14', 26'), S. Bakaev (6', 36', 64'), R. Koryan (45' pen), I. Mazurov (77'), M. Glushenkov (80').

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak in Moskva.

Spartak Moscow 2 vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Fakel Voronezh