Spartak Moscow 2 0–1 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Avangard Kursk

K. Appaev 76'

11/8/2017

First League · Round 22Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak (Moskva)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spartak Moscow 240%

×Draw27%

Avangard Kursk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.21

Spartak Moscow 2

1.34

Avangard Kursk

1.21

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 40 away

1.39

creates per match

0.97

1.44

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.39

Avangard Kursk

0.97

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.44

Avangard Kursk

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

66%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Avangard Kursk

73%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

60%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

18%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

74%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

39%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

15%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

70%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

34%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

54%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.39 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Avangard Kursk attack 0.97 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

40%

level

27%

Avangard Kursk scores more

34%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Idrisa Sambú← D. Davydov

58'

K. Appaev← R. Bolov

74'

D. Sinyaev← I. Alshin

76'

K. Appaev

83'

N. Imullin← A. Mitasov

89'

R. Netfullin← D. Korobov

90'

E. Nikulin← B. Tsygankov

Spartak

Avangard

1

71

25

4

97

9

▼

Mitasov

87

▼

Korobov

10

Gurfov

70

▼

Alshin

67

Fedchuk

58

▼

95

94

46

31

22

21

88

83

27

84

▼

Tsygankov

69

▼

Davydov

Manager: D. Gunko

46'▲Idrisa Sambú←▼D. Davydov

90'▲E. Nikulin←▼B. Tsygankov

Spartak Moscow 2 substitutes

49Sambú70Nikulin26Mironov56Averkiev

Manager: K. Bidzhiyev

58'▲K. Appaev←▼R. Bolov

74'▲D. Sinyaev←▼I. Alshin

83'▲N. Imullin←▼A. Mitasov

89'▲R. Netfullin←▼D. Korobov

Avangard Kursk substitutes

14Appaev17Sinyaev8Imullin52Netfullin13Chagrov21Voynov22Voynov

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Avangard Kursk

Avangard Kursk beat Spartak Moscow 2 1-0 in First League on November 8, 2017.

Goals: K. Appaev (76').

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak (Moskva).

Spartak Moscow 2 vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Avangard Kursk