Spartak Moscow 2 3–2 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

A. Voropaev 90'

Vladislav Shitov 12'

S. Melnikov 7'

I. Mashukov 61'

David Kobesov 51'

8/15/2021

First League · Round 6Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Spartak Moscow 237%

×Draw26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.36

Spartak Moscow 2

1.35

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

1.38

creates per match

1.24

1.49

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.38

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.49

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

63%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

74%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

63%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

17%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

74%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

39%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

15%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

74%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

39%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

50%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.38 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

37%

level

26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

37%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

7'

12'

26'

30'

46'

B. Gurtsiev← A. Zaseev

46'

I. Mashukov← K. Khosonov

46'

David Kobesov← V. Khubulov

47'

Alan Tsaraev

51'

David Kobesov

57'

Rustam Sosranov

57'

A. Butaev← R. Sosranov

61'

I. Mashukov

68'

B. Khadartsev← N. Giorgobiani

74'

Alan Khabalov

80'

Vitali Shitov← S. Melnikov

88'

M. Danilin← S. Oganesyan

90+3'

Ruslan Litvinov

90+4'

I. Golyatov← Vladislav Shitov

90'

A. Voropaev

Spartak4-4-2

Alaniya3-4-3

11

▼

Khubulov

22

Tsaraev

99

▼

Giorgobia

80

▼

Khosonov

97

Magomedov

77

Khabalov

23

▼

Sosranov

13

▼

3

15

91

27

68

63

36

⚽

Voropaev

56

Gaponov

71

⚽

▼

97

74

75

73

⚽

▼

Shitov

84

▼

Oganesyan

Manager: E. Bushmanov

80'▲Vitali Shitov←▼S. Melnikov

88'▲M. Danilin←▼S. Oganesyan

90+4'▲I. Golyatov←▼Vladislav Shitov

Spartak Moscow 2 substitutes

76Shitov78Danilin89Golyatov16Poplevchenkov43Shaykhtdinov53Muminov65Tolstopyatov83Laykin86Agapov87Kozhedub90Shiltsov91Markov

Manager: S. Gogniev

46'▲B. Gurtsiev←▼A. Zaseev

46'▲I. Mashukov←▼K. Khosonov

46'▲David Kobesov←▼V. Khubulov

57'▲A. Butaev←▼R. Sosranov

68'▲B. Khadartsev←▼N. Giorgobiani

Alaniya Vladikavkaz substitutes

7Gurtsiev14Mashukov18Kobesov19Butaev10Khadartsev5Bagaev8Khugaev9Podbeltsev21Kokoev70Eldarushev88Kobesov33Tuaev