Spartak Kostroma 1–2 Znamya Truda: Result & Stats

Spartak Kostroma

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Znamya Truda

8/14/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Spartak Kostroma46%

×Draw26%

Znamya Truda27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchZnamya Truda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.04

Spartak Kostroma

1.45

Znamya Truda

1.04

Spartak Kostroma creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

1.31

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.31

Znamya Truda

1.07

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Znamya Truda

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Znamya Truda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

73%

Spartak Kostroma or Znamya Truda

74%

Draw or Znamya Truda

54%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

23%

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

77%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

42%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

18%

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

65%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

28%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

63%

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.31 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

46%

level

26%

Znamya Truda scores more

27%

Spartak Kostroma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff