Spartak Kostroma vs Veles — First League 2024
71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Spartak Kostroma47%
Veles27%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Spartak Kostroma creates 41% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Spartak Kostroma ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches
Veles away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Veles defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52
Veles attack 1.17 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Spartak Kostroma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
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Torpedo Moskva
Chernomorets
Ural
FC Sochi
Ska-khabarovsk
Rodina Moskva
Enisey
Rotor Volgograd
Arsenal Tula
KAMAZ
FK Neftekhimik
Chayka
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FC UFA
FK Sokol Saratov
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
TyumenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Spartak Kostroma host Veles on Saturday, 1 May 2027 at 15:00. The match is part of the First League 2024/2025 season.
Preview: Spartak Kostroma host Veles
May 1, 2027: Spartak Kostroma take on Veles in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Spartak Kostroma host Veles at Stadion Urozhay.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.