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Spartak Kostroma vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3/22/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma46%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

Spartak Kostroma creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 123 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
73%
Spartak Kostroma or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
54%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
63%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
63%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
46%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
27%

Spartak Kostroma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Spartak Kostroma and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 1-1 in First League on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Karavaevo.