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Spartak Kostroma vs Leningradets — First League 2024

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
Preview
15:00
Leningradets
Leningradets
10/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Urozhay
Big match
39%
Spartak Kostroma
model favours
39%30%32%

Leningradets score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spartak Kostroma39%
×Draw30%
Leningradets32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.14
Leningradets
1.00

Spartak Kostroma creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
Leningradets
1.00

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Leningradets
1.00

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Leningradets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
68%
Spartak Kostroma or Leningradets
70%
Draw or Leningradets
61%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
16%
Leningradets wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
68%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
32%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
11%
Leningradets 1+ goals
63%
Leningradets 2+ goals
26%
Leningradets 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
55%
Leningradets (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Leningradets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Leningradets attack 1.00 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
39%
level
30%
Leningradets scores more
32%

Spartak Kostroma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leningradets have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Leningradets’s matches
  • Spartak Kostroma sit 4, Leningradets 18 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kostroma
WLLDD
Leningradets
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Kostroma face Leningradets (First League)

First League returns with Spartak Kostroma hosting Leningradets. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartak Kostroma host Leningradets at Stadion Urozhay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.