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Leningradets vs Spartak Kostroma — Second League - Group 2 2020

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
6/4/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 11Stadion Petrovskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Leningradets49%
×Draw24%
Spartak Kostroma27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
1.69
Spartak Kostroma
1.21

Leningradets creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

creates per match

Leningradets
2.24
Spartak Kostroma
1.63

allows per match

Leningradets
0.78
Spartak Kostroma
1.13

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
73%
Leningradets or Spartak Kostroma
76%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
51%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
26%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
82%
Leningradets 2+ goals
50%
Leningradets 3+ goals
24%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
34%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
64%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 2.24 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.63 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leningradets scores more
49%
level
24%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
27%

Leningradets at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leningradets vs Spartak Kostroma

Leningradets beat Spartak Kostroma 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Petrovskiy in St. Petersburg.