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Spartak Kostroma vs KAMAZ — First League 2018

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
A. Saplinov 45' (pen)
R. Manuylov 14'
10/11/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma46%
×Draw29%
KAMAZ25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.23
KAMAZ
0.83

Spartak Kostroma creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
KAMAZ
0.66

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
KAMAZ
1.19

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
75%
Spartak Kostroma or KAMAZ
71%
Draw or KAMAZ
54%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
20%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
71%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
35%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
13%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
56%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
20%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
65%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.19 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + KAMAZ defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

KAMAZ attack 0.66 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
46%
level
29%
KAMAZ scores more
25%

Spartak Kostroma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Renat Golybin
14'
R. Manuylov
15'
Dmitri Sadov
45'
A. SaplinovPenalty
46'
K. Chursin← E. Nazarenko
46'
D. Karaev← R. Golybin
52'
Maksim Chikanchi
65'
G. Yudintsev← M. Sultonov
77'
S. Bugriev← A. Nemchenko
80'
S. Abdullaev← D. N. Motorin
80'
D. Shamkin← R. Apekov
86'
G. Kiselev← D. Zhilmostnykh
86'
K. Kaplenko← I. Enin
87'
Nikolay Tarasov

Statistics

SpartakKAMAZ
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs KAMAZ

Spartak Kostroma and KAMAZ drew 1-1 in First League on October 11, 2025.

Goals: R. Manuylov (14'), A. Saplinov (45' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Karavaevo.