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Spartak Kostroma vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
5/15/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Spartak Kostroma42%
×Draw27%
Baltika BFU31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.36
Baltika BFU
1.13

Spartak Kostroma creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 53 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.31
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
69%
Spartak Kostroma or Baltika BFU
73%
Draw or Baltika BFU
58%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
20%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
16%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
68%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
31%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
57%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.31 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
42%
level
27%
Baltika BFU scores more
31%

Spartak Kostroma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs Baltika BFU

Spartak Kostroma beat Baltika BFU 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhaj in Karavaevo.