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Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
Preview
16:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
3/6/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Urozhay
41%
Spartak Kostroma
model favours
41%29%30%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma41%
×Draw29%
Arsenal Tula30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.20
Arsenal Tula
0.97

Spartak Kostroma creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 41 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
Arsenal Tula
0.93

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.12

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
70%
Spartak Kostroma or Arsenal Tula
71%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
59%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
18%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
34%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
12%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
62%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
25%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
58%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Arsenal Tula attack 0.93 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
41%
level
29%
Arsenal Tula scores more
30%

Spartak Kostroma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kostroma
WLLDD
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Kostroma face Arsenal Tula (First League)

First League returns with Spartak Kostroma hosting Arsenal Tula. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartak Kostroma host Arsenal Tula at Stadion Urozhay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.