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Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2018

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
9/13/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arsenal Tula37%
×Draw27%
Spartak Kostroma36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.29
Spartak Kostroma
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.99
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
64%
Arsenal Tula or Spartak Kostroma
73%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
63%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
17%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
72%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
37%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
14%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
36%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
51%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
37%
level
27%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
36%

Arsenal Tula at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma

Spartak Kostroma beat Arsenal Tula 2-1 in First League on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.