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Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard — Eredivisie 2018

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
3/30/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 27Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam51%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
1.77
Fortuna Sittard
1.18

Sparta Rotterdam creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.43
Fortuna Sittard
0.90

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.46
Fortuna Sittard
2.10

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam-0.08on par
Fortuna Sittard+0.27scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
75%
Sparta Rotterdam or Fortuna Sittard
77%
Draw or Fortuna Sittard
49%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
28%
Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
83%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
53%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
26%
Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals
69%
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals
33%
Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
67%
Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.10 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.43 + Fortuna Sittard defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fortuna Sittard attack 0.90 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
51%
level
23%
Fortuna Sittard scores more
25%

Sparta Rotterdam at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Sparta Rotterdam 4–0 Fortuna Sittard

Sparta Rotterdam beat Fortuna Sittard 4-0 in Eredivisie on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam.