Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 AZ Alkmaar: Result & Stats

Sparta Rotterdam

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

AZ Alkmaar

V. van Crooij 59', 1'

M. Kerkez 65'

D. de Wit 57'

Vangelis Pavlidis 45+1' (pen)

8/14/2022

Eredivisie · Round 2Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam38%

×Draw25%

AZ Alkmaar37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta RotterdamExpected goals in this matchAZ Alkmaar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.40

Sparta Rotterdam

1.43

AZ Alkmaar

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

1.37

creates per match

1.47

1.32

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.37

AZ Alkmaar

1.47

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.32

AZ Alkmaar

1.49

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam-0.11scores less

AZ Alkmaar-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

AZ Alkmaar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw

63%

Sparta Rotterdam or AZ Alkmaar

75%

Draw or AZ Alkmaar

62%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

18%

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

76%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

42%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

17%

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

75%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

41%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

51%

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.32 · 46 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.37 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.47 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

38%

level

25%

AZ Alkmaar scores more

37%

Sparta Rotterdam at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Vangelis Pavlidis

AZ Alkmaar · F

8.2

Match Events

1'

Vito van CrooijGoal confirmed

1'

V. van Crooij↳ Y. Namli

36'

38'

38'

38'

45+1'

Vangelis PavlidisPenalty

46'

J. van Mullem← A. Verschueren

46'

J. Kitolano← J. Lokilo

57'

D. de Wit↳ Vangelis Pavlidis

59'

V. van Crooij↳ J. de Guzmán

65'

M. Kerkez

66'

A. Witry← M. Kerkez

66'

M. de Wit← P. Hatzidiakos

67'

M. Lahdo← M. van Brederode

75'

S. Mijnans← J. de Guzmán

75'

S. Sambo← D. Abels

75'

Y. Barası← Vangelis Pavlidis

82'

P. Koopmeiners← J. Clasie

83'

C. Brym← Y. Namli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaAZ

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots25

2Corners6

12Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots25

3On Target7

3Off Target7

2Blocked11

5Inside Box16

3Outside Box9

Passing

38%Possession62%

340Total Passes578

258Accurate Passes497

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2