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AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eredivisie 2018

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
1/26/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 20AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

AZ Alkmaar54%
×Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.87
Sparta Rotterdam
1.17

AZ Alkmaar creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.72
Sparta Rotterdam
0.96

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.39
Sparta Rotterdam
2.02

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.28scores more
Sparta Rotterdam+0.16scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
76%
AZ Alkmaar or Sparta Rotterdam
77%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam
46%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
30%
Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
85%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
56%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
29%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
69%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
33%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
69%
Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.39 · 17 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.02 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.72 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.96 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
54%
level
23%
Sparta Rotterdam scores more
24%

AZ Alkmaar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 in Eredivisie on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.