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Sparta Rotterdam II vs OFC Oostzaan — Tweede Divisie 2019

Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
9/17/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 7Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam II63%
×Draw19%
OFC Oostzaan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam II
2.42
OFC Oostzaan
1.22

Sparta Rotterdam II creates 98% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.84
OFC Oostzaan
0.71

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.73
OFC Oostzaan
3.00

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam II ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam II or draw
82%
Sparta Rotterdam II or OFC Oostzaan
81%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
37%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
41%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
91%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
69%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
43%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
70%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
34%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
78%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.84 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
63%
level
19%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
18%

Sparta Rotterdam II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Rotterdam II vs OFC Oostzaan

Sparta Rotterdam II beat OFC Oostzaan 6-0 in Tweede Divisie on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Dijkpolder in Maassluis.