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Sparta Rotterdam II vs Excelsior Maassluis — Tweede Divisie 2019

Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
2/1/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 21Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam II50%
×Draw22%
Excelsior Maassluis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.96
Excelsior Maassluis
1.44

Sparta Rotterdam II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 104 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.84
Excelsior Maassluis
1.16

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.73
Excelsior Maassluis
2.09

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par
Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam II ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam II or draw
72%
Sparta Rotterdam II or Excelsior Maassluis
78%
Draw or Excelsior Maassluis
50%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
28%
Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
86%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
58%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
31%
Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
76%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
42%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
64%
Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.84 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.96

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
50%
level
22%
Excelsior Maassluis scores more
28%

Sparta Rotterdam II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Sparta Rotterdam II 2–0 Excelsior Maassluis

Sparta Rotterdam II beat Excelsior Maassluis 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge in Rotterdam.