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Sparta Praha W vs Viktoria Plzeň W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Sparta Praha W
Sparta Praha W
FT
7 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň W
Viktoria Plzeň W
3/20/20251. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 13TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sparta Praha W85%
×Draw9%
Viktoria Plzeň W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha W
3.82
Viktoria Plzeň W
0.96

Sparta Praha W creates 298% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha W
5.02
Viktoria Plzeň W
1.28

allows per match

Sparta Praha W
0.63
Viktoria Plzeň W
2.63

finishing

Sparta Praha W+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha W ↓

Viktoria Plzeň W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Sparta Praha W or draw
94%
Sparta Praha W or Viktoria Plzeň W
91%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň W
15%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha W wins by 2+
70%
Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sparta Praha W 1+ goals
98%
Sparta Praha W 2+ goals
88%
Sparta Praha W 3+ goals
71%
Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals
62%
Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals
25%
Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)
94%
Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha W at home — creates 5.02, concedes 0.63 · 60 matches

Viktoria Plzeň W away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.63 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha W attack 5.02 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 3.82

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.28 + Sparta Praha W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Sparta Praha W scores more
85%
level
9%
Viktoria Plzeň W scores more
6%

Sparta Praha W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Sparta Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Sparta Praha W 7–1 Viktoria Plzeň W

Sparta Praha W beat Viktoria Plzeň W 7-1 in 1. Liga Women on March 20, 2025.

The match was played at TC Strahov in Praha.