Sparta Praha W 0–2 Slavia Praha W: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slavia Praha W

4/6/2026

1. Liga Women · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sparta Praha W49%

×Draw18%

Slavia Praha W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha WExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

2.34

Sparta Praha W

2.84

Slavia Praha W

2.34

Sparta Praha W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

5.02

creates per match

4.05

0.63

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Sparta Praha W

5.02

Slavia Praha W

4.05

allows per match

Sparta Praha W

0.63

Slavia Praha W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha W+0.00on par

Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha W ↓

Slavia Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Sparta Praha W or draw

67%

Sparta Praha W or Slavia Praha W

82%

Draw or Slavia Praha W

51%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha W wins by 2+

31%

Slavia Praha W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sparta Praha W 1+ goals

94%

Sparta Praha W 2+ goals

77%

Sparta Praha W 3+ goals

53%

Slavia Praha W 1+ goals

90%

Slavia Praha W 2+ goals

67%

Slavia Praha W 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)

60%

Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha W at home — creates 5.02, concedes 0.63 · 60 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 4.05, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha W attack 5.02 + Slavia Praha W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.84

Slavia Praha W attack 4.05 + Sparta Praha W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sparta Praha W scores more

49%

level

18%

Slavia Praha W scores more

33%

Sparta Praha W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sparta Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff