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Sparta Praha W vs Baník Ostrava W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Sparta Praha W
Sparta Praha W
FT
8 – 1
Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
8/20/20221. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 1Stadion Prosek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sparta Praha W88%
×Draw8%
Baník Ostrava W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha W
4.17
Baník Ostrava W
0.95

Sparta Praha W creates 339% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha W
5.02
Baník Ostrava W
1.27

allows per match

Sparta Praha W
0.63
Baník Ostrava W
3.33

finishing

Sparta Praha W+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha W ↓

Baník Ostrava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Sparta Praha W or draw
96%
Sparta Praha W or Baník Ostrava W
92%
Draw or Baník Ostrava W
12%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha W wins by 2+
74%
Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sparta Praha W 1+ goals
98%
Sparta Praha W 2+ goals
91%
Sparta Praha W 3+ goals
75%
Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
61%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
25%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)
95%
Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha W at home — creates 5.02, concedes 0.63 · 60 matches

Baník Ostrava W away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha W attack 5.02 + Baník Ostrava W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 4.17

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.27 + Sparta Praha W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Sparta Praha W scores more
88%
level
8%
Baník Ostrava W scores more
4%

Sparta Praha W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Sparta Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Praha W vs Baník Ostrava W

Sparta Praha W beat Baník Ostrava W 8-1 in 1. Liga Women on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Prosek in Praha.