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Baník Ostrava W vs Sparta Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Sparta Praha W
Sparta Praha W
9/27/20251. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baník Ostrava W8%
×Draw12%
Sparta Praha W81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava W
0.94
Sparta Praha W
3.25

Sparta Praha W creates 246% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava W
1.00
Sparta Praha W
3.82

allows per match

Baník Ostrava W
2.67
Sparta Praha W
0.87

finishing

Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par
Sparta Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava W ↓

Sparta Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava W or draw
19%
Baník Ostrava W or Sparta Praha W
88%
Draw or Sparta Praha W
92%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
2%
Sparta Praha W wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
61%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
24%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
7%
Sparta Praha W 1+ goals
96%
Sparta Praha W 2+ goals
83%
Sparta Praha W 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
9%
Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 30 matches

Sparta Praha W away — creates 3.82, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.00 + Sparta Praha W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sparta Praha W attack 3.82 + Baník Ostrava W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Baník Ostrava W scores more
8%
level
12%
Sparta Praha W scores more
81%

Sparta Praha W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Sparta Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava W vs Sparta Praha W

Sparta Praha W beat Baník Ostrava W 5-0 in 1. Liga Women on September 27, 2025.