Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Sparta Praha51%
AZ Alkmaar25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sparta Praha creates 53% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sparta Praha ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches
AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sparta Praha attack 1.89 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65
AZ Alkmaar attack 1.38 + Sparta Praha defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Sparta Praha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Strasbourg
Raków Częstochowa
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Rayo Vallecano
Shakhtar Donetsk
FSV Mainz 05
AEK Larnaca
Lausanne
Crystal Palace
Lech Poznan
Samsunspor
CeljeAZ Alkmaar
Fiorentina
HNK Rijeka
Jagiellonia
Omonia Nicosia
FC Noah
Drita
KuPS
Shkendija
Zrinjski
Sigma Olomouc
Universitatea Craiova
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Dynamo Kyiv
Legia Warszawa
Slovan Bratislava
Breidablik
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BK Hacken
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Shelbourne
Aberdeen
Rapid ViennaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sparta Praha host AZ Alkmaar on Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 20:00. The match is part of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar beat Sparta Praha 4-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 19, 2026.
Goals: I. Jensen (8'), T. Parrott (58'), S. Mijnans (62'), R. Daal (73').
AZ Alkmaar controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 6.
The match was played at epet ARENA in Prague.