Sparta Praha 1–0 Artis: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

1 – 0

Artis

7/1/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sparta Praha69%

×Draw16%

Artis14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchArtis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.17

Sparta Praha

2.70

Artis

1.17

Sparta Praha creates 131% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

3.64

creates per match

1.70

0.64

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sparta Praha

3.64

Artis

1.70

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.64

Artis

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Artis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

86%

Sparta Praha or Artis

84%

Draw or Artis

31%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

48%

Artis wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

93%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

75%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

50%

Artis 1+ goals

69%

Artis 2+ goals

33%

Artis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

83%

Artis (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 3.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Artis away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 3.64 + Artis defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.70

Artis attack 1.70 + Sparta Praha defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

69%

level

16%

Artis scores more

14%

Sparta Praha at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff