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Sparta Praha vs AC Milan — UEFA Europa League 2026

Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AC Milan
AC Milan
J. Hauge 23'
12/10/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group H - 6Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sparta Praha33%
×Draw25%
AC Milan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha
1.31
AC Milan
1.50

AC Milan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha
1.63
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Sparta Praha
1.50
AC Milan
1.00

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.00on par
AC Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw
58%
Sparta Praha or AC Milan
75%
Draw or AC Milan
67%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+
14%
AC Milan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals
73%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
38%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
14%
AC Milan 1+ goals
78%
AC Milan 2+ goals
44%
AC Milan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
44%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.63 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Sparta Praha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sparta Praha scores more
33%
level
25%
AC Milan scores more
42%

AC Milan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. TătărușanuAC MilanAC Milan · G
7.9

Match Events

15'
Michal Sáček
23'
J. Hauge↳ Diogo Dalot
35'
Rade Krunić
44'
Matěj Polidar
45'
Ladislav Krejčí II← A. Karabec
49'
Daniel Maldini
65'
L. Juliš← M. Minchev
65'
D. Moberg-Karlsson← S. Plavšić
67'
Rafael Leão← L. Colombo
77'
Milan Heča
77'
Dominik Plechatý
78'
F. Kessié← D. Maldini
82'
Ladislav Krejčí I← M. Sáček
85'
Samu Castillejo
90'
Brahim Díaz← J. Hauge

Possession

43%Sparta

Shots

8Sparta

Pass accuracy

47%Sparta

Statistics

SpartaAC
Overview
43%Possession57%
8Total Shots8
6Corners5
14Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots8
4On Target6
3Off Target2
1Blocked0
6Inside Box6
2Outside Box2
Passing
43%Possession57%
300Total Passes415
218Accurate Passes336
73%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
3Offsides4

UEFA Europa League: Sparta Praha 0–1 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Sparta Praha 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on December 10, 2020.

Goals: J. Hauge (23').

AC Milan controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Generali Arena in Praha.