Sparta Praha U19 6–1 Příbram U19: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha U19

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Příbram U19

J. Tosnar 87'

J. Tesar 80', 74', 45'

E. Osmani 61'

D. Rus 34'

M. Jedlicka 24' (OG)

4/1/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 20TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sparta Praha U1981%

×Draw12%

Příbram U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha U19Expected goals in this matchPříbram U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.26

0.94

Sparta Praha U19

3.26

Příbram U19

0.94

Sparta Praha U19 creates 247% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

2.28

creates per match

0.85

1.03

allows per match

4.24

creates per match

Sparta Praha U19

2.28

Příbram U19

0.85

allows per match

Sparta Praha U19

1.03

Příbram U19

4.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha U19+0.00on par

Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sparta Praha U19 or draw

92%

Sparta Praha U19 or Příbram U19

88%

Draw or Příbram U19

19%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha U19 wins by 2+

63%

Příbram U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sparta Praha U19 1+ goals

96%

Sparta Praha U19 2+ goals

83%

Sparta Praha U19 3+ goals

61%

Příbram U19 1+ goals

61%

Příbram U19 2+ goals

24%

Příbram U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha U19 at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha U19 attack 2.28 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.26

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Sparta Praha U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Sparta Praha U19 scores more

81%

level

12%

Příbram U19 scores more

8%

Sparta Praha U19 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Sparta Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. JedlickaOwn goal

34'

D. Rus

45'

J. Tesar

61'

E. Osmani

74'

J. Tesar

80'

J. Tesar

87'

J. Tosnar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff