Sparta Praha U19 3–3 MTK U19: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

MTK U19

P. Vydra 80'

D. Kaštánek 50'

V. Sejk 25' (pen)

H. Georgievski 89'

Z. Vancsa 76', 45'

10/20/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group StageeFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sparta Praha U1938%

×Draw23%

MTK U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha U19Expected goals in this matchMTK U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

Sparta Praha U19

1.60

MTK U19

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.20

2.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sparta Praha U19

2.00

MTK U19

1.20

allows per match

Sparta Praha U19

2.00

MTK U19

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha U19+0.00on par

MTK U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha U19 ↓

MTK U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sparta Praha U19 or draw

62%

Sparta Praha U19 or MTK U19

77%

Draw or MTK U19

62%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha U19 wins by 2+

19%

MTK U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sparta Praha U19 1+ goals

80%

Sparta Praha U19 2+ goals

47%

Sparta Praha U19 3+ goals

22%

MTK U19 1+ goals

80%

MTK U19 2+ goals

47%

MTK U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha U19 (draw refunded)

50%

MTK U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

MTK U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha U19 attack 2.00 + MTK U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

MTK U19 attack 1.20 + Sparta Praha U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sparta Praha U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

MTK U19 scores more

38%

Sparta Praha U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sparta Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. Guth

25'

V. SejkPenalty

28'

M. Kata

44'

M. Suchomel

45'

Z. Vancsa

46'

M. Balogh← Z. Vasvári

50'

D. Kaštánek

51'

V. Sejk

68'

J. Kaufman← E. Osmani

74'

H. Georgievski← B. Várkonyi

76'

Z. Vancsa

80'

P. Vydra

85'

A. Sevinsky

89'

H. Georgievski

89'

H. Georgievski

90+2'

F. Silhart

90'

M. Jedlička← O. Lilling

90+3'

B. Juhász← K. Fekete

90'

G. Szőke← Z. Vancsa

90+3'

A. Gyuris← A. Horváth

Sparta

MTK

12

Csenteric

22

Helembai

4

▼

Várkonyi

13

Guth

5

▼

Fekete

24

Kata

14

▼

Horváth

7

Kovács

20

Miknyóczk

30

⚽2

▼

Vancsa

88

▼

1

2

13

4

10

6

⚽

Vydra

15

⚽

Kaštánek

16

▼

Osmani

14

▼

Lilling

11

I

9

⚽

Sejk

Manager: J. Kopáňko

68'▲J. Kaufman←▼E. Osmani

90'▲M. Jedlička←▼O. Lilling

Sparta Praha U19 substitutes

19Kaufman8Jedlička7Sprinz22Kolář17Tesař18Krejčí20Kolínek

Manager: J. Kanta

46'▲M. Balogh←▼Z. Vasvári

74'▲H. Georgievski←▼B. Várkonyi

90+3'▲B. Juhász←▼K. Fekete

90'▲G. Szőke←▼Z. Vancsa

90+3'▲A. Gyuris←▼A. Horváth

MTK U19 substitutes

11Balogh6Georgievski3Juhász19Szőke99Gyuris17Juhász31Velicskó

UEFA Youth League: Sparta Praha U19 3–3 MTK U19

Sparta Praha U19 and MTK U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA Youth League on October 20, 2021.

Goals: V. Sejk (25' pen), Z. Vancsa (45', 76'), D. Kaštánek (50'), P. Vydra (80'), H. Georgievski (89').

The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.

Sparta Praha U19 vs MTK U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Sparta Praha U19 3–3 MTK U19