Sparta Praha U19 vs Jablonec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Sparta Praha U1963%
Jablonec U1918%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sparta Praha U19 creates 105% more chances
Season form · 78 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sparta Praha U19 ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sparta Praha U19 at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches
Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sparta Praha U19 attack 2.28 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.27
Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Sparta Praha U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
Sparta Praha U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "Sparta Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Sparta Praha U19
Jindřichův Hradec
Zlín U19
České Budějovice U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Pardubice U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
Baník Ostrava U19
Hradec Králové U19
Zbrojovka Brno U19
Slovácko U19
Opava U19
Příbram U19
Karviná U19
Meteor Praha U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sparta Praha U19 host Jablonec U19 on Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 10:00. The match is part of the 1. Liga U19 2020/2021 season.
1. Liga U19: Sparta Praha U19 4–0 Jablonec U19
Sparta Praha U19 beat Jablonec U19 4-0 in 1. Liga U19 on March 8, 2025.
The match was played at TC Strahov in Praha.