Sparta Praha II 1–0 Zlin: Result & Stats | FNL

Sparta Praha II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zlin

I. Tuci 53'

4/27/2025

FNL · Round 25eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sparta Praha II30%

×Draw29%

Zlin41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha IIExpected goals in this matchZlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.24

Sparta Praha II

1.01

Zlin

1.24

Zlin creates 23% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

1.55

creates per match

1.27

1.21

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Sparta Praha II

1.55

Zlin

1.27

allows per match

Sparta Praha II

1.21

Zlin

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Zlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw

59%

Sparta Praha II or Zlin

71%

Draw or Zlin

70%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

11%

Zlin wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

64%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

27%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

8%

Zlin 1+ goals

71%

Zlin 2+ goals

35%

Zlin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

42%

Zlin (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Zlin away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Zlin defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.01

Zlin attack 1.27 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more

30%

level

29%

Zlin scores more

41%

Zlin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Kopecny

28'

T. Poznar

31'

I. Garcia

46'

P. Zíka← Imanol García de Albéniz

53'

I. Tuci

67'

Z. Natchkebia← M. Koubek

67'

S. Kanu← D. Machalík

75'

P. Brandner← V. Vukadinović

76'

D. Kaštánek← D. Rus

76'

R. Mokrovics← H. Hruška

83'

I. Tuci

83'

L. Bartosak

83'

T. Ščernjavič← L. Bartošák

83'

L. Buchvaldek← D. Tkáč

89'

90+2'

90+3'

90'

Sparta

Zlin

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: L. Loucka

46'▲P. Zíka←▼Imanol García de Albéniz

76'▲D. Kaštánek←▼D. Rus

76'▲R. Mokrovics←▼H. Hruška

90'▲J. Tošnar←▼R. Horák

Sparta Praha II substitutes

ZíkaKaštánekMokrovicsTošnar

Manager: B. Červenka

67'▲Z. Natchkebia←▼M. Koubek

67'▲S. Kanu←▼D. Machalík

75'▲P. Brandner←▼V. Vukadinović

83'▲T. Ščernjavič←▼L. Bartošák

83'▲L. Buchvaldek←▼D. Tkáč

Zlin substitutes

NatchkebiaKanuBrandnerŠčernjavičBuchvaldek