Sparta Praha II 4–0 Vysočina Jihlava

Sparta Praha II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Vysočina Jihlava

V. Hranoš 72'

D. Rus 43'

E. Osmani 22'

H. Hruška 15'

7/31/2024

FNL · Round 3eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sparta Praha II48%

×Draw25%

Vysočina Jihlava28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha IIExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

Sparta Praha II

1.61

Vysočina Jihlava

1.17

Sparta Praha II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 104 away

1.55

creates per match

1.14

1.21

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Sparta Praha II

1.55

Vysočina Jihlava

1.14

allows per match

Sparta Praha II

1.21

Vysočina Jihlava

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Vysočina Jihlava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw

72%

Sparta Praha II or Vysočina Jihlava

75%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava

52%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

25%

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

80%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

48%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

22%

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals

69%

Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals

33%

Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

63%

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Vysočina Jihlava away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.14 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more

48%

level

25%

Vysočina Jihlava scores more

28%

Sparta Praha II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sparta Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

15'

22'

31'

31'

R. Křivánek← J. Araujo-Wilson

43'

46'

46'

46'

59'

D. Farka← M. Záhradník

62'

M. Jedlička← E. Osmani

62'

62'

72'

77'

82'

S. Abdulfatai← M. Boussou

Sparta

Vysočina

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Osmani

⚽

Hruška

▼

Michl

⚽

▼

Rus

Manager: L. Loucka

46'▲A. Vitarigov←▼D. Rus

62'▲M. Jedlička←▼E. Osmani

62'▲L. Váňa←▼N. Okeke

62'▲V. Hranoš←▼L. Penxa

77'▲R. Šiler←▼D. Michl

Sparta Praha II substitutes

VitarigovJedličkaVáňaHranošŠiler

Manager: D. Oulehla

31'▲R. Křivánek←▼J. Araujo-Wilson

46'▲T. Franěk←▼J. Selnar

46'▲M. Hošek←▼M. Lacko

59'▲D. Farka←▼M. Záhradník

82'▲S. Abdulfatai←▼M. Boussou

Vysočina Jihlava substitutes

KřivánekFraněkHošekFarkaAbdulfatai

FNL: Sparta Praha II 4–0 Vysočina Jihlava

Sparta Praha II beat Vysočina Jihlava 4-0 in FNL on July 31, 2024.

Goals: H. Hruška (15'), E. Osmani (22'), D. Rus (43'), V. Hranoš (72').

The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.

Sparta Praha II vs Vysočina Jihlava — FNL 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FNL: Sparta Praha II 4–0 Vysočina Jihlava