Sparta Praha II 1–2 Viktoria Žižkov: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Viktoria Žižkov

L. Penxa 90'

T. Necid 22', 19'

10/27/2024

FNL · Round 14eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sparta Praha II48%

×Draw24%

Viktoria Žižkov28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha IIExpected goals in this matchViktoria Žižkov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.25

Sparta Praha II

1.70

Viktoria Žižkov

1.25

Sparta Praha II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 89 away

1.55

creates per match

1.29

1.21

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Sparta Praha II

1.55

Viktoria Žižkov

1.29

allows per match

Sparta Praha II

1.21

Viktoria Žižkov

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Viktoria Žižkov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw

72%

Sparta Praha II or Viktoria Žižkov

76%

Draw or Viktoria Žižkov

52%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

25%

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

82%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

51%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

24%

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals

71%

Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals

36%

Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

63%

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Viktoria Žižkov away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.84 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.70

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.29 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more

48%

level

24%

Viktoria Žižkov scores more

28%

Sparta Praha II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sparta Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

22'

34'

36'

59'

63'

63'

70'

I. Muleme← A. Vaníček

70'

71'

71'

79'

82'

84'

J. Tregler← M. Jirásek

84'

J. Sodoma← T. Necid

87'

E. Osmani← D. Rus

90+4'

D. Sixta

90+2'

D. Sixta← A. Batioja

90'

L. Penxa

Sparta

Viktoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Loucka

63'▲O. Penxa←▼D. Michl

71'▲H. Hruška←▼P. Hodouš

71'▲V. Novák←▼J. Tošnar

87'▲E. Osmani←▼D. Rus

Sparta Praha II substitutes

PenxaHruškaNovákOsmani

Manager: M. Nikl

70'▲I. Muleme←▼A. Vaníček

70'▲M. Hönig←▼V. Prošek

84'▲J. Tregler←▼M. Jirásek

84'▲J. Sodoma←▼T. Necid

90+2'▲D. Sixta←▼A. Batioja

Viktoria Žižkov substitutes

MulemeHönigTreglerSodomaSixta