Sparta Praha II 2–2 Chrudim: Result & Stats | FNL

Sparta Praha II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Chrudim

4/6/2025

FNL · Round 21eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sparta Praha II46%

×Draw25%

Chrudim29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha IIExpected goals in this matchChrudim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.17

Sparta Praha II

1.56

Chrudim

1.17

Sparta Praha II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 104 away

1.55

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Sparta Praha II

1.55

Chrudim

1.13

allows per match

Sparta Praha II

1.21

Chrudim

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Chrudim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Chrudim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw

71%

Sparta Praha II or Chrudim

75%

Draw or Chrudim

54%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

24%

Chrudim wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

79%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

46%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

21%

Chrudim 1+ goals

69%

Chrudim 2+ goals

33%

Chrudim 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

62%

Chrudim (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Chrudim away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Chrudim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chrudim attack 1.13 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more

46%

level

25%

Chrudim scores more

29%

Sparta Praha II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sparta Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff