Sparta Praha II vs Baník Ostrava II — FNL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Sparta Praha II45%
Baník Ostrava II30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sparta Praha II creates 27% more chances
Season form · 75 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sparta Praha II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches
Baník Ostrava II away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58
Baník Ostrava II attack 1.27 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Sparta Praha II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Sparta Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Baník Ostrava II substitutes
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Zbrojovka Brno
Táborsko
Artis
Ústí nad LabemBaník Ostrava II
Příbram
Opava
Viktoria Žižkov
Vlašim
Slavia Praha II
Chrudim
Hanácká
České Budějovice
Prostějov
Vysočina JihlavaSparta Praha IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sparta Praha II host Baník Ostrava II on Sunday, 21 July 2024 at 08:30. The match is part of the FNL 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Sparta Praha II vs Baník Ostrava II
Sparta Praha II and Baník Ostrava II drew 2-2 in FNL on July 21, 2024.
Goals: V. Hranoš (11'), D. Rus (22'), P. Jaroň (63'), J. Uhrinčať (65' o.g.).
The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.